NCC: An R-package for analysis and simulation of platform trials with non-concurrent controls

Platform trials evaluate the efficacy of multiple treatments, allowing for late entry of the experimental arms and enabling efficiency gains by sharing controls. The power of individual treatment-control comparisons in such trials can be improved by utilizing non-concurrent controls (NCC) in the analysis. We present the R-package NCC for the design and analysis of platform trials using non-concurrent controls. NCC allows for simulating platform trials and evaluating the properties of analysis methods that make use of non-concurrent controls in a variety of settings. We describe the main NCC functions and show how to use the package to simulate and analyse platform trials by means of specific examples

On model-based time trend adjustments in platform trials with non-concurrent controls

Platform trials can evaluate the efficacy of several treatments compared to a control. The number of treatments is not fixed, as arms may be added or removed as the trial progresses. Platform trials are more efficient than independent parallel-group trials because of using shared control groups. For arms entering the trial later, not all patients in the control group are randomised concurrently. The control group is then divided into concurrent and non-concurrent controls. Using non-concurrent controls (NCC) can improve the trial's efficiency, but can introduce bias due to time trends. We focus on a platform trial with two treatment arms and a common control arm. Assuming that the second treatment arm is added later, we assess the robustness of model-based approaches to adjust for time trends when using NCC. We consider approaches where time trends are modeled as linear or as a step function, with steps at times where arms enter or leave the trial. For trials with continuous or binary outcomes, we investigate the type 1 error (t1e) rate and power of testing the efficacy of the newly added arm under a range of scenarios. In addition to scenarios where time trends are equal across arms, we investigate settings with trends that are different or not additive in the model scale. A step function model fitted on data from all arms gives increased power while controlling the t1e, as long as the time trends are equal for the different arms and additive on the model scale. This holds even if the trend's shape deviates from a step function if block randomisation is used. But if trends differ between arms or are not additive on the model scale, t1e control may be lost. The efficiency gained by using step function models to incorporate NCC can outweigh potential biases. However, the specifics of the trial, plausibility of different time trends, and robustness of results should be considere

Clinical Relevance of Elevated Soluble ST2, HSP27 and 20S Proteasome at Hospital Admission in Patients with COVID-19

Although, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents one of the biggest challenges in the world today, the exact immunopathogenic mechanism that leads to severe or critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has remained incompletely understood. Several studies have indicated that high systemic plasma levels of inflammatory cytokines result in the so-called “cytokine storm”, with subsequent development of microthrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and multiorgan-failure. Therefore, we reasoned those elevated inflammatory molecules might act as prognostic factors. Here, we analyzed 245 serum samples of patients with COVID-19, collected at hospital admission. We assessed the levels of heat shock protein 27 (HSP27), soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) and 20S proteasome at hospital admission and explored their associations with overall-, 30-, 60-, 90-day- and in-hospital mortality. Moreover, we investigated their association with the risk of ventilation. We demonstrated that increased serum sST2 was uni- and multivariably associated with all endpoints. Furthermore, we also identified 20S proteasome as independent prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality (sST2, AUC = 0.73; HSP27, AUC = 0.59; 20S proteasome = 0.67). Elevated sST2, HSP27, and 20S proteasome levels at hospital admission were univariably associated with higher risk of invasive ventilation (OR = 1.8; p < 0.001; OR = 1.1; p = 0.04; OR = 1.03, p = 0.03, respectively). These findings could help to identify high-risk patients early in the course of COVID-19

NCC : An R-package for analysis and simulation of platform trials with non-concurrent controls

Platform trials evaluate the efficacy of multiple treatments, allowing for late entry of the experimental arms and enabling efficiency gains by sharing controls. The power of individual treatment-control comparisons in such trials can be improved by utilizing non-concurrent controls (NCC) in the analysis. We present the R-package NCC for the design and analysis of platform trials using non-concurrent controls. NCC allows for simulating platform trials and evaluating the properties of analysis methods that make use of non-concurrent controls in a variety of settings. We describe the main NCC functions and show how to use the package to simulate and analyse platform trials by means of specific examples

NCC: An R-package for analysis and simulation of platform trials with non-concurrent controls

Platform trials evaluate the efficacy of multiple treatments, allowing for late entry of the experimental arms and enabling efficiency gains by sharing controls. The power of individual treatment-control comparisons in such trials can be improved by utilizing non-concurrent controls (NCC) in the analysis. We present the R-package NCC for the design and analysis of platform trials using non-concurrent controls. NCC allows for simulating platform trials and evaluating the properties of analysis methods that make use of non-concurrent controls in a variety of settings. We describe the main NCC functions and show how to use the package to simulate and analyse platform trials by means of specific examples

On model-based time trend adjustments in platform trials with non-concurrent controls

Background: Platform trials can evaluate the efficacy of several experimental treatments compared to a control. The number of experimental treatments is not fixed, as arms may be added or removed as the trial progresses. Platform trials are more efficient than independent parallel group trials because of using shared control groups. However, for a treatment entering the trial at a later time point, the control group is divided into concurrent controls, consisting of patients randomised to control when that treatment arm is in the platform, and non-concurrent controls, patients randomised before. Using non-concurrent controls in addition to concurrent controls can improve the trial’s efficiency by increasing power and reducing the required sample size, but can introduce bias due to time trends. Methods: We focus on a platform trial with two treatment arms and a common control arm. Assuming that the second treatment arm is added at a later time, we assess the robustness of recently proposed model-based approaches to adjust for time trends when utilizing non-concurrent controls. In particular, we consider approaches where time trends are modeled either as linear in time or as a step function, with steps at time points where treatments enter or leave the platform trial. For trials with continuous or binary outcomes, we investigate the type 1 error rate and power of testing the efficacy of the newly added arm, as well as the bias and root mean squared error of treatment effect estimates under a range of scenarios. In addition to scenarios where time trends are equal across arms, we investigate settings with different time trends or time trends that are not additive in the scale of the model. Results: A step function model, fitted on data from all treatment arms, gives increased power while controlling the type 1 error, as long as the time trends are equal for the different arms and additive on the model scale. This holds even if the shape of the time trend deviates from a step function when patients are allocated to arms by block randomisation. However, if time trends differ between arms or are not additive to treatment effects in the scale of the model, the type 1 error rate may be inflated. Conclusions: The efficiency gained by using step function models to incorporate non-concurrent controls can outweigh potential risks of biases, especially in settings with small sample sizes. Such biases may arise if the model assumptions of equality and additivity of time trends are not satisfied. However, the specifics of the trial, scientific plausibility of different time trends, and robustness of results should be carefully considered

Clinical Relevance of Elevated Soluble ST2, HSP27 and 20S Proteasome at Hospital Admission in Patients with COVID-19

Although, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents one of the biggest challenges in the world today, the exact immunopathogenic mechanism that leads to severe or critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has remained incompletely understood. Several studies have indicated that high systemic plasma levels of inflammatory cytokines result in the so-called “cytokine storm”, with subsequent development of microthrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and multiorgan-failure. Therefore, we reasoned those elevated inflammatory molecules might act as prognostic factors. Here, we analyzed 245 serum samples of patients with COVID-19, collected at hospital admission. We assessed the levels of heat shock protein 27 (HSP27), soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) and 20S proteasome at hospital admission and explored their associations with overall-, 30-, 60-, 90-day- and in-hospital mortality. Moreover, we investigated their association with the risk of ventilation. We demonstrated that increased serum sST2 was uni- and multivariably associated with all endpoints. Furthermore, we also identified 20S proteasome as independent prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality (sST2, AUC = 0.73; HSP27, AUC = 0.59; 20S proteasome = 0.67). Elevated sST2, HSP27, and 20S proteasome levels at hospital admission were univariably associated with higher risk of invasive ventilation (OR = 1.8; p < 0.001; OR = 1.1; p = 0.04; OR = 1.03, p = 0.03, respectively). These findings could help to identify high-risk patients early in the course of COVID-19

Clinical Relevance of Elevated Soluble ST2, HSP27 and 20S Proteasome at Hospital Admission in Patients with COVID-19

Although, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents one of the biggest challenges in the world today, the exact immunopathogenic mechanism that leads to severe or critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has remained incompletely understood. Several studies have indicated that high systemic plasma levels of inflammatory cytokines result in the so-called “cytokine storm”, with subsequent development of microthrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and multiorgan-failure. Therefore, we reasoned those elevated inflammatory molecules might act as prognostic factors. Here, we analyzed 245 serum samples of patients with COVID-19, collected at hospital admission. We assessed the levels of heat shock protein 27 (HSP27), soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) and 20S proteasome at hospital admission and explored their associations with overall-, 30-, 60-, 90-day- and in-hospital mortality. Moreover, we investigated their association with the risk of ventilation. We demonstrated that increased serum sST2 was uni- and multivariably associated with all endpoints. Furthermore, we also identified 20S proteasome as independent prognostic factor for in-hospital mortality (sST2, AUC = 0.73; HSP27, AUC = 0.59; 20S proteasome = 0.67). Elevated sST2, HSP27, and 20S proteasome levels at hospital admission were univariably associated with higher risk of invasive ventilation (OR = 1.8; p < 0.001; OR = 1.1; p = 0.04; OR = 1.03, p = 0.03, respectively). These findings could help to identify high-risk patients early in the course of COVID-19

Current state-of-the-art and gaps in platform trials: 10 things you should know, insights from EU-PEARL

Summary: Platform trials bring the promise of making clinical research more efficient and more patient centric. While their use has become more widespread, including their prominent role during the COVID-19 pandemic response, broader adoption of platform trials has been limited by the lack of experience and tools to navigate the critical upfront planning required to launch such collaborative studies. The European Union-Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatform (EU-PEARL) initiative has produced new methodologies to expand the use of platform trials with an overarching infrastructure and services embedded into Integrated Research Platforms (IRPs), in collaboration with patient representatives and through consultation with U.S. Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency stakeholders. In this narrative review, we discuss the outlook for platform trials in Europe, including challenges related to infrastructure, design, adaptations, data sharing and regulation. Documents derived from the EU-PEARL project, alongside a literature search including PubMed and relevant grey literature (e.g., guidance from regulatory agencies and health technology agencies) were used as sources for a multi-stage collaborative process through which the 10 more important points based on lessons drawn from the EU-PEARL project were developed and summarised as guidance for the setup of platform trials. We conclude that early involvement of critical stakeholder such as regulatory agencies or patients are critical steps in the implementation and later acceptance of platform trials. Addressing these gaps will be critical for attaining the full potential of platform trials for patients. Funding: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking with support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA